Tag: decision-making
All the articles with the tag "decision-making".
You don't need to predict the future
A paper on how founders think splits reasoning into two kinds, and the second one builds the future instead of forecasting it.
How to steal an expert's gut feel
Gary Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision model explains how experts read a messy situation in seconds, and how you can train the same habit.
Unknown unknowns and last week's lottery numbers
Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns and Bezos's 70% rule. Some decisions are worth slowing down for, and the rest lose their value while you wait.
How to dodge bad advice, from a Wharton professor
You can't judge advice on a subject you don't know, so judge the adviser instead: does he want you to do well, does he know the field, and does he know you?
Why Ray Dalio's Principles is hard
Dalio tells you to be a hyperrealist and moves on, so here are the two things that stop you: your desires and your guesses.
Write the rules before your resolve wavers
A three step method for building decision rules that hold when your own judgment wobbles: settle the plan before you act, state its intent, and name the assumptions that would break it.
The psychology behind why cutting your stock losses is hard
A behavioral economics paper on why we set a rule and then break it. We judge by one standard when we plan and a different one when we act.
I found the best brain science book - 1
Brain View argues that emotion drives learning and decisions, and this first post covers why emotion exists at all and how it turns into the motives behind what you do.
The strategy that beats the average every time
Decision-making series 3: the Martingale strategy looks unbeatable and bankrupts you anyway. The three mistakes to avoid when you can't know the odds.
The success equation for knowledge and confidence
Decision-making series 2: the Kelly criterion says your return can never beat the accuracy of your information, so bet in proportion to what you actually know.