Tag: uncertainty
All the articles with the tag "uncertainty".
You don't need to predict the future
A paper on how founders think splits reasoning into two kinds, and the second one builds the future instead of forecasting it.
Unknown unknowns and last week's lottery numbers
Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns and Bezos's 70% rule. Some decisions are worth slowing down for, and the rest lose their value while you wait.
You can't draw a doorknob
Try sketching a doorknob from memory and you'll see how thin your model of the world is, and why forecasts keep missing.