Tag: cognitive-biases
All the articles with the tag "cognitive-biases".
What losing 3 million won on P2P lending taught me
Philip Tetlock's three patterns of closed thinking, the politician, the preacher and the prosecutor, and the fourth job that gets you out of them.
What matters more than the survivors
The bombers that never came back hold the answer. How survivorship bias works, and what to ask before you judge from the data in front of you.
The 2-4-6 rule that 96% of people get wrong
Wason's rule-finding experiment shows why stacking up supporting evidence never proves you right, while a single counterexample can prove you wrong.
What if your brain stops and you never notice?
Certain words and certain people trip a breaker in your head that shuts your thinking off, and you can learn to catch it and switch it back on.
You can't draw a doorknob
Try sketching a doorknob from memory and you'll see how thin your model of the world is, and why forecasts keep missing.
Why studying more makes you dumber
Decision-making series 1: more information didn't make expert racing analysts any more accurate. It only made them more sure they were right.