Tag: probability
All the articles with the tag "probability".
The strategy that beats the average every time
Decision-making series 3: the Martingale strategy looks unbeatable and bankrupts you anyway. The three mistakes to avoid when you can't know the odds.
The success equation for knowledge and confidence
Decision-making series 2: the Kelly criterion says your return can never beat the accuracy of your information, so bet in proportion to what you actually know.
Why studying more makes you dumber
Decision-making series 1: more information didn't make expert racing analysts any more accurate. It only made them more sure they were right.